Attack Attack Attack

Jersey photoshopping by Fyxo

Given Bradley Wiggins substantial lead by the first rest day, and the strength of his support team (3 different British riders winning in 3 different terrains), it's hard to see what the rest of the field can do. It's either attack, or wait for him (and Chris Froome!) to fall off their bikes. Inner Ring makes an interesting point about the downside of going on the attack against such strong opposition:

Listing reasons to attack is one thing but there are also reasons why the riders will not attack. Now you might think that if you’re within reach of the podium of the Tour de France then it’s time to do anything to get there. But there’s an asymmetry in the attack, a risk that many will not want to take.

Let’s take Dennis Menchov and Katusha. The rider sits in fifth place overall this morning then might still fancy the podium. But if he attacks in the mountains there’s a good chance he is caught, if not by Sky then by BMC and Liquigas-Cannondale. Once caught he could be dropped, valuable energy is wasted, and he slips several places on the GC. In short an attack could lift Menchov up a place or two but if it fails he could easily lose five places.

Riders don’t race with a spreadsheet in their mind but we can’t ignore the money. UCI points are so valuable these days for teams that they convert into salary and remember that finishing 14th overall brings in as many points as a stage win. Riders have a big incentive to camp on their positions rather than risk trying to climb up a place.